Key Points:

• Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost is a leading contender in the 2025 papal conclave, but his election as Pope Leo XIV remains uncertain.
• As an American, Prevost faces historical resistance to a U.S. pope due to global influence concerns.
• His centrist views align with Pope Francis on social issues but are conservative on doctrines like women’s ordination.
• Controversies over handling abuse cases may impact his candidacy.
• The conclave’s outcome is unpredictable, with many factors influencing the final decision.

Overview of the 2025 Conclave

Following Pope Francis’s death on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church convened a conclave on May 7, 2025, to elect a new pope. Among the 133 cardinal electors, Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, a Chicago-born American, has emerged as a notable candidate. His potential election as Pope Leo XIV would mark a historic first for the United States, though experts suggest this is unlikely due to longstanding traditions favoring non-American popes.

Prevost’s Background

Prevost, aged 69, brings a global perspective to the conclave. Ordained in 1982, he spent 20 years in Peru, becoming a naturalized citizen and serving as a missionary, priest, and bishop. His leadership roles include heading the Augustinian order and, since 2023, serving as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, a key Vatican position overseeing global bishop appointments.

Strengths and Challenges

Prevost’s supporters highlight his humility, multilingualism, and commitment to marginalized groups, echoing Pope Francis’s priorities. However, his conservative stances, such as opposing women’s ordination and expressing concerns about L.G.B.T.Q. issues, may alienate progressive cardinals. Additionally, allegations of mishandling clerical abuse cases in Chicago and Peru pose significant challenges to his candidacy.

Likelihood of Election

While Prevost is considered a “dignified middle of the road” candidate, the historical aversion to an American pope and ongoing controversies make his election uncertain. The conclave’s diverse electorate and complex dynamics suggest a range of possible outcomes.

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A Comprehensive Look at the 2025 Conclave and Cardinal Prevost

The 2025 papal conclave, convened on May 7, 2025, following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, is a pivotal moment for the Catholic Church. With 133 cardinal electors tasked with selecting a new pope, the process is governed by rules set by John Paul II’s 1996 Universi Dominici gregis and Benedict XVI’s 2013 Normas nonnullas. The conclave, held in Vatican City, has drawn global attention, particularly due to speculation about Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as a potential Pope Leo XIV, which would make him the first American pope in the Church’s history.

Cardinal Prevost’s Background and Career

Born in Chicago to parents of Spanish, French, and Italian descent, Robert Francis Prevost grew up in a devout Catholic household. His mother, Mildred Martínez, was known for hosting priests, fostering his early exposure to clergy. His father, Louis Marius Prevost, served as a catechist, further shaping his faith. Prevost joined the Augustinian order, studied canon law in Rome, and was ordained in 1982 at age 27.

Prevost’s career is marked by extensive international experience. He spent two decades in Peru, serving as a missionary, parish priest, teacher, and judicial vicar in the Territorial Prelature of Chulucanas. He became a naturalized Peruvian citizen and later served as bishop of Chiclayo from 2015. His leadership extended to the global Augustinian order, where he was prior general from 2001 to 2013. In 2020, Pope Francis appointed him to the Dicastery for Bishops, and in 2023, he became its prefect, a role that involves selecting bishops worldwide and has elevated his profile among cardinals. He received the cardinal’s red hat on September 30, 2023.

Aspect	Details
Birthplace	Chicago, USA
Ordination	1982, Augustinian order
Education	Doctorate in canon law, Pontifical University of St. Thomas Aquinas, Rome
Key Roles	Bishop of Chiclayo, Peru (2015); Prefect of Dicastery for Bishops (2023)
Citizenship	Dual U.S. and Peruvian
Languages	English, Spanish, Italian

Theological and Social Positions

Prevost is often described as a centrist, balancing progressive and conservative views. He aligns with Pope Francis’s emphasis on social justice, advocating for the poor and migrants, and has a reputation for humility and closeness to the faithful. However, his conservative stances on church doctrine, such as opposing the ordination of women as deacons and expressing concerns about the “homosexual lifestyle” and “alternative families” in a 2012 address, have drawn scrutiny. As bishop in Chiclayo, he also opposed gender ideology in schools, reflecting a traditionalist approach to certain cultural issues.

Controversies Surrounding Prevost

Prevost’s candidacy is not without controversy. In 2000, while leading the Midwestern Augustinians, he approved housing a priest accused of sexually abusing minors in a Chicago rectory near a Catholic school, a decision criticized for lacking transparency. In 2022, he faced accusations of failing to investigate abuse allegations against two priests in Chiclayo, though the diocese claimed the Vatican had closed the investigation. These issues, reported internationally in 2024, have raised concerns among cardinals seeking a pope untainted by scandal. Some speculate that these allegations may be part of a smear campaign against a candidate aligned with Pope Francis’s vision, but they remain a significant hurdle.

Prevost as a Papal Candidate

Prevost is listed among the papabili—cardinals considered “pope-able”—alongside figures like Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle. His international experience, administrative expertise, and alignment with Francis’s pastoral approach make him a compelling candidate. Vatican analyst Marco Politi has noted that, were Prevost not American, he would be an automatic papabile due to his qualifications. His role as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops has given him visibility and influence, as he has worked closely with cardinals worldwide.

However, several factors complicate his candidacy. The Catholic Church has never elected an American pope, partly due to concerns about U.S. global dominance. The perception that the U.S. already wields significant political and cultural influence may lead cardinals to favor candidates from other regions, such as Europe, Africa, or Asia. Additionally, the controversies surrounding his handling of abuse cases could deter electors prioritizing a scandal-free pontificate. Media reports suggest a surge of favorable coverage for Prevost in outlets like The New York Times and The Pillar, prompting speculation about a coordinated campaign, which may further polarize opinions.

The 2025 Conclave’s Dynamics

The 2025 conclave is described as one of the most unpredictable in recent history, with a diverse electorate of 133 cardinals, 108 of whom were appointed by Pope Francis. This diversity, coupled with the fact that many cardinals are unfamiliar with one another, adds complexity to the voting process. The conclave requires a two-thirds majority to elect a pope, and as of May 8, 2025, no candidate has been chosen, with black smoke indicating inconclusive votes.

The election is seen as a referendum on Pope Francis’s legacy of openness and inclusion. Cardinals must decide whether to continue his progressive reforms or shift toward a more traditionalist doctrine. Prevost’s centrist profile positions him as a potential bridge between factions, but his American nationality and past controversies may tip the scales against him.

Could Prevost Become Pope Leo XIV?

The prospect of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost becoming Pope Leo XIV is both intriguing and uncertain. His strengths—global experience, administrative acumen, and alignment with Francis’s social priorities—make him a formidable candidate. His supporters view him as a “dignified middle of the road” figure capable of uniting a divided Church. However, the historical aversion to an American pope, combined with unresolved questions about his handling of abuse cases, presents significant obstacles.

The conclave’s outcome hinges on numerous factors, including the cardinals’ desire for continuity versus change, regional representation, and the need for a leader unmarred by scandal. While Prevost’s name is prominently discussed, other papabili like Parolin, Tagle, or Matteo Zuppi may ultimately prevail. As the world awaits the white smoke from the Sistine Chapel, the possibility of a historic American papacy remains a topic of fervent debate.